Hurricanes Plus Oil Spill Could Increase Environmental Damage in Gulf

Hurricane season begins today, and the experts are predicting a high number of storms between now and November 30. Officially, the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) expects an "active to extremely active" hurricane season in 2010.

According to NOAA, there is a 70 percent probability that the six-month hurricane season
(June 1-November 30) will produce 14 to 23 named storms, which are defined as storms with top winds of 39 miles per hour (mph) or higher. Eight to 14 of those named storms are expected to be hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher, and 3 to 7 could be major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5) with winds of at least 111 mph.

"If this outlook holds true, this season could be one of the more active on record," said Jane Lubchenco, Ph.D., under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. "The greater likelihood of storms brings an increased risk of a landfall. In short, we urge everyone to be prepared."

Meanwhile, scientists are worried that severe hurricanes sweeping through the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico could push oil from the massive BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill deep into coastal marshes, causing even more environmental damage.

Scientists are also wondering whether the oil slick in the Gulf of Mexico could contribute to more severe storms by raising the temperature of the water. Kerry Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told NPR: "You have this black surface, and it's doing two things. First of all, it's absorbing sunlight. And secondly, it is curtailing evaporation from the Gulf." Evaporation normally helps cool the Gulf.

Several factors are contributing to the forecast of an "active to extremely active" hurricane season in 2010:

* The Atlantic Basin has been in a multi-decade cycle of more active hurricane seasons since 1995; eight of the last 15 seasons rank in the top 10 for the most named storms with 2005 (the year of Hurricane Katrina) in the top spot with 28 named storms.
* Heading into the 2010 hurricane season, sea surface temperatures are at record levels--up to four degrees Fahrenheit above average--and are expected to remain warmer than usual.
* In addition, wind shear in the upper atmosphere is weak, an ideal condition for big storms.